BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Southeastern Coastal Plain has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-92%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has collapsed in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Baltimore Oriole In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±565.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±565.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±565.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.08
20260.000.000.08
20270.000.000.08
20280.000.000.08
20290.000.000.08

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrownsvilleTENNESSEE62006
SouthALABAMA51972
CyburMISSISSIPPI51986
SweetlipsTENNESSEE41994
LathamALABAMA31971
CastleberryALABAMA32004
VidaliaGEORGIA31996
Duck HillMISSISSIPPI31998
RiderwoodALABAMA21983
UticaMISSISSIPPI21979
Olive BranchMISSISSIPPI21976
CockrumMISSISSIPPI21983
WalthallMISSISSIPPI21987
LakeMISSISSIPPI21972
CorinthMISSISSIPPI22022
Jarvisburg 2NORTH-CAROLINA22001
St FlorianALABAMA11996
LindenALABAMA11984
BillingsleyALABAMA11967
MillryALABAMA11999
EpesALABAMA12003
VinaALABAMA11996
St. ElmoALABAMA12006
CuthbertGEORGIA11982
LyonsGEORGIA11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.