BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Marbled Godwit

ScolopacidaeShorebirdsLimosa fedoa

Marbled Godwit has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+103%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
152RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Marbled Godwit

The Marbled Godwit (Limosa fedoa) is a North American member of the Sandpipers & Allies (Scolopacidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the shorebirds.

Size
5–26 in long (13–66 cm) — a probing shorebird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Shorelines, mudflats, beaches, flooded fields and wet meadows.
Diet
Invertebrates probed or picked from mud, sand and shallow water.
Range
Recorded on 152 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 5 states, most concentrated in the Prairie Potholes.
Family
Scolopacidae · Shorebirds

Notable Marbled Godwit TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Marbled Godwit has surged in surveyed states: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Marbled Godwit Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Marbled Godwit is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.09–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Marbled Godwit is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.09–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.080.16
20260.120.080.16
20270.120.080.16
20280.120.090.16
20290.120.090.16

Where the Marbled Godwit Is Detected

BBS routes recording Marbled Godwit, sized by most recent count.

Marbled Godwit Population Trend by State

Marbled Godwit population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Minnesota+434%197220
Montana+445%197548
Nevadainsufficient datan/a1
North Dakota+51%196945
South Dakota+39%196938

Marbled Godwit Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Marbled Godwit population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Rockies+37%19838
Prairie Potholes+71%196982
Boreal Hardwood Transition+108%19944
Badlands and Prairies+687%196955

Marbled Godwit Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 103% since 1969. Many shorebirds have declined steeply, reflecting pressure on the coastal and wetland stopovers they depend on.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.