BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Marbled Godwit In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesShorebirds

Marbled Godwit in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 687% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+687%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Marbled Godwit has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 687% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Marbled Godwit In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Marbled Godwit in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.96 (95% range 0.56–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.96Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.56–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Marbled Godwit in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.96 (95% range 0.56–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.900.491.3
20260.910.511.3
20270.930.531.3
20280.950.541.3
20290.960.561.4

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Marbled Godwit in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA182015
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA152022
Flatwillow 2MONTANA132013
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA122024
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA122015
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA112022
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA92024
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA82019
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA72024
Fort PierreSOUTH-DAKOTA72023
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA62022
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA62017
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA62024
IngomarMONTANA52024
Jordan SouthMONTANA52021
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA52005
FlatwillowMONTANA42003
LindsayMONTANA42024
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA42024
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA42024
WebsterMONTANA32024
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA32024
MaurineSOUTH-DAKOTA32023
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA32013
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA32023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.