BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Marbled Godwit In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesShorebirds

Marbled Godwit in Northern Rockies has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-17%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Marbled Godwit in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Marbled Godwit In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Marbled Godwit in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Marbled Godwit in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.000.08
20270.040.000.08
20280.040.000.08
20290.040.000.08
20300.040.000.08

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Marbled Godwit in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AugustaMONTANA32021
BeaverheadMONTANA21997
St. Mary 2MONTANA22022
Heart ButteMONTANA22025
St MaryMONTANA11989
Red RockMONTANA12023
Willow Creek 2MONTANA12024
RaynesfordMONTANA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.