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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Marbled Godwit Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesShorebirds

Marbled Godwit in Minnesota has surged: up 434% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+434%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Marbled Godwit Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Marbled Godwit has surged in Minnesota: up 434% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Marbled Godwit Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Marbled Godwit in Minnesota is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.02–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.50Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Marbled Godwit in Minnesota is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.02–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.500.020.98
20260.500.020.98
20270.500.020.98
20280.500.020.99
20290.500.020.99

Marbled Godwit Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Marbled Godwit in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grygla1520161976
Greenbush1320241993
Warroad820241993
Lude520232004
Lake Bronson520111978
Gluek319881972
Chokio320221969
Erie320171976
Wylie220141969
Badger220171978
New London220141994
Big Stone120091997
Appleton120111979
Glyndon120241978
Tenney120121978
Oklee120111981
Beltrami119981976
Waskish119891989
Ashby120122012
Lockhart120212004

Marbled Godwit Population Trend in Other States

montananevadanorth-dakotasouth-dakota

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.