BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Marbled Godwit Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesShorebirds

Marbled Godwit in North Dakota has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+52%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Marbled Godwit Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Marbled Godwit has risen sharply in North Dakota: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Marbled Godwit Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Marbled Godwit in North Dakota is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.6–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Marbled Godwit in North Dakota is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.6–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.22.46.0
20274.32.56.1
20284.32.56.1
20294.42.56.2
20304.42.66.2

Marbled Godwit Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Marbled Godwit in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead Lk2220251980
Dickinson1820251988
Bentley1220241989
Glen Ullin1120231982
Braddock1120231988
Bowman920251967
Walcott820151967
Cedar Creek820191994
Solen720252008
Douglas Crk620251982
Gorham520251996
Danzig420141982
Kempton420141967
Wild Rose420251982
Lake George320231967
Carson320251988
Regan320231968
Dunn Center320251970
Carpio320231967
Denbigh320251968
Parshall320131982
Sheyenne Lk320251980
Montpelier320252000
Edgeley220241980
Buchanan220251967

Marbled Godwit Population Trend in Other States

minnesotamontanasouth-dakota

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.