BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Marbled Godwit Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesShorebirds

Marbled Godwit in South Dakota has increased: up 39% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+39%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Marbled Godwit Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Marbled Godwit in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Marbled Godwit Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Marbled Godwit in South Dakota is projected to rise about 205% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.17–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+205%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Marbled Godwit in South Dakota is projected to rise about 205% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.17–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.112.0
20261.10.122.0
20271.10.142.0
20281.10.152.0
20291.10.172.1

Marbled Godwit Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Marbled Godwit in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Isabel1820152009
Ottumwa1520221968
Laplant1220151999
Gorman1120101979
White Lake720111967
Fort Pierre720231972
Harding620172010
Lodgepole620241999
Chamberlain520052005
Raymond520211967
Gettysburg520231971
Long Lake420191967
Forbes320191967
Conde319681968
Maurine320232013
Marcus320132001
Lacreek320231991
Owanka220122012
Railroad Butte220182018
Lennox120002000
Pioneer120032003
Cottonwood120162016
Volga120122006
Broadland120131989
Lane119991977

Marbled Godwit Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.