Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Analysis

ParulidaeForest birdsSetophaga ruticilla

American Redstart has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

About the American Redstart

The American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) is a North American member of the Wood-Warblers (Parulidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–5.5 in long (11–14 cm) — a small, active songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 1,706 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 43 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Parulidae · Forest birds

Notable American Redstart TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart. See the full index history below.

American Redstart Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 1.2–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 1.2–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.41.21.7
20271.41.21.7
20281.41.21.7
20291.41.21.7
20301.41.21.7

Where the American Redstart Is Detected

BBS routes recording American Redstart, sized by most recent count.

American Redstart Population Trend by State

American Redstart population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama-25%196870
Alaska-44%19965
Arkansas-78%196932
Coloradoinsufficient datan/a3
Connecticut+74%196820
Delaware-57%19699
Georgia-56%197525
Idaho-71%197512
Illinois+72%196861
Indiana+284%197139
Iowa16×197123
Kansasinsufficient datan/a2
Kentucky-69%196829
Louisiana+24%196935
Maine-5%196878
Maryland+95%196865
Massachusetts+184%196830
Michigan+409%1968103
Minnesota+277%196982
Mississippi+14%196833
Missouri+176%197041
Montana+6%197049
Nebraska+63%199510
New Hampshire-28%196826
New Jersey+778%196830
New York+64%1968129
North Carolina-46%196970
North Dakota+307%197221
Ohio+562%196855
Oklahoma+48%19935
Oregoninsufficient datan/a3
Pennsylvania+131%1968131
Rhode Island+307%19696
South Carolina-9%198312
South Dakota+182%196923
Tennessee+31%196831
Texas-84%19709
Vermont+10%196826
Virginia+438%196870
Washington-46%197020
West Virginia+198%196864
Wisconsin+237%196898
Wyoming-15%197821

American Redstart Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

American Redstart population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-34%19966
Great Basin-9%197211
Northern Rockies-52%197069
Prairie Potholes+988%197047
Boreal Hardwood Transition+238%1968127
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain+167%196882
Atlantic Northern Forest-24%1968156
Badlands and Prairies+134%196947
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+182%1968120
Prairie Hardwood Transition+351%1968152
Central Hardwoods+66%196883
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-83%196949
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-53%197024
Southeastern Coastal Plain+0%1968133
Appalachian Mountains+190%1968354
Piedmont-30%1968107
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+124%1968129

American Redstart Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 21% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.