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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Michigan has surged: up 380% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+380%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Michigan: up 379% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Michigan is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 8.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 5.4–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–9.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Michigan is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 8.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 5.4–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.94.98.9
20267.05.09.0
20277.15.19.1
20287.25.29.2
20297.35.49.3

American Redstart Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording American Redstart in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tahquamenon3820241974
Muskallonge3720241968
Gilchrist3720211974
Bergland3620221979
Pickford3320241973
Ontonagon3020191967
Maple Grove2720241968
Shingleton2620241967
Hiawatha Nf2520241992
Harrietta2320241990
Walloon Lake 22320242005
Raco1820241971
Pleasant Valley 21820242004
Bear Lake1720241967
Isabella 21620242013
Marenisco1420191981
Riggsville1420191967
Bootjack1320231967
Lake City1220221970
Chippewa Lk.1220241992
Ishpeming1120231980
Herron1120162011
Big Island Lake1120102008
Scottville1020241971
Walloon Lake1020041977

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.