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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Michigan has surged: up 409% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+409%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Michigan: up 409% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Michigan is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 9.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 5.6–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.6–9.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Michigan is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 9.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 5.6–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.25.19.2
20277.35.29.3
20287.45.49.4
20297.55.59.5
20307.65.69.6

American Redstart Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording American Redstart in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Muskallonge3720241968
Gilchrist3720211974
Bergland3620221979
Scottville3420251971
Maple Grove3320251968
Ontonagon3020191967
Pickford2720251973
Shingleton2520251967
Tahquamenon2320251974
Walloon Lake 22320242005
Isabella 22020252013
Hiawatha Nf2020251992
Harrietta1720251990
Chippewa Lk.1720251992
Raco1620251971
Pleasant Valley 21620252004
Bear Lake1520251967
Marenisco1420191981
Crystal Fls1420251979
Riggsville1420191967
Bootjack1320231967
Ishpeming1220251980
Lake City1220221970
Herron1120162011
Big Island Lake1120102008

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.