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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Massachusetts has surged: up 184% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+184%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Massachusetts: up 184% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.2 (95% range 6.1–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.1–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.2 (95% range 6.1–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.05.910
20278.05.910
20288.16.010
20298.26.110
20308.26.110

American Redstart Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording American Redstart in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Belchertown2320251967
Pittsfield2020161967
Marion1920251969
Sheffield1920221969
Chesterfield1620251967
S Barre1520251968
Cummington 21520252015
Prattville1320191966
Hancock1320151997
N Orange1220251968
Monterey1120252019
Cummington1020141968
Cheshire1019941969
Warren920091968
Warren 2720252010
N Oxford320251968
Gay Head320251996
Holden320251977
Wellfleet219871966
E Dennis119901967
Chilmark119831971
Ware River120221993
Newburyport120171967
Maynard120251968
Littleton120241967

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.