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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Massachusetts has surged: up 195% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+195%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Massachusetts: up 195% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 6.0–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.0–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 6.0–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.95.810
20268.05.810
20278.05.910
20288.16.010
20298.26.010

American Redstart Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording American Redstart in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Belchertown3120241967
Chesterfield2620241967
Pittsfield2020161967
Sheffield1920221969
Cummington 21920242015
Marion1720241969
Monterey1720242019
S Barre1420241968
Prattville1320191966
Hancock1320151997
Warren 21220242010
N Orange1020241968
Cummington1020141968
Cheshire1019941969
Warren920091968
Gay Head720241996
Holden320231977
Wellfleet219871966
E Dennis119901967
Chilmark119831971
Ware River120221993
Newburyport120171967
Maynard120221968
Littleton120241967
N Oxford120141968

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.