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Species · Delaware · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Delaware

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Delaware has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has fallen sharply in Delaware: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Delaware is projected to fall about 54% by 2014 — from 0.25 in 2009 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2014TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2014 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Delaware is projected to fall about 54% by 2014 — from 0.25 in 2009 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662014
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20100.130.000.37
20110.130.000.37
20120.120.000.37
20130.120.000.36
20140.120.000.36

American Redstart Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording American Redstart in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blackbird220012001
Mt Pleasant119711968
Wilmington119851985
Harrington120091968
Frederica119751966
Frankford119781978
Holleyville119761971
Lowes Xrds119771975
Milton120092009

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.