BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in New York has risen sharply: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has risen sharply in New York: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in New York is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 2.5–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in New York is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 2.5–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.52.56.5
20264.52.56.5
20274.52.56.4
20284.52.56.4
20294.52.56.4

American Redstart Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording American Redstart in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dexter Lake3719751968
Pulaski3120241967
Sabattis2619831966
Corbettsvile2020241966
Oneonta2020241968
S Berne 21920242014
Mcdonough1820171967
Austerlitz1720241966
Philadelphia1620241980
Blue Ridge S1520101969
Petersburg1220131966
Cayuga1220241971
Cicero Ctr1220241966
Ogdensburg1220241979
Mt Morris1120241967
Nashville1120181967
Inlet1120171979
Watertown1020121968
Cobleskill920231968
North Easton920241967
Sciota920061968
Laurens820241969
Kasoag820241966
Hope Falls819951968
Salem820241969

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.