BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in New York has risen sharply: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+64%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has risen sharply in New York: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in New York is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 6.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.6–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in New York is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 6.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.6–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.62.66.6
20274.62.66.6
20284.62.66.6
20294.62.66.6
20304.62.66.5

American Redstart Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording American Redstart in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dexter Lake3719751968
Sabattis2619831966
Corbettsvile2120251966
Philadelphia2120251980
Ogdensburg1920251979
Mcdonough1820171967
Austerlitz1620251966
Pulaski1620251967
Oneonta1520251968
Blue Ridge S1520101969
S Berne 21520252014
Cayuga1320251971
North Easton1320251967
Petersburg1220131966
Nashville1120181967
Cicero Ctr1120251966
Inlet1120171979
Watertown1020121968
Cobleskill920231968
Sciota920061968
Duanesburg820251966
E Youngstown820251973
Hope Falls819951968
Parishville820251971
West Seneca719861966

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.