BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Tennessee has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-12%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Tennessee is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Tennessee is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.000.84
20260.320.000.83
20270.320.000.82
20280.310.000.81
20290.300.000.81

American Redstart Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording American Redstart in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elk Valley2120221970
Red Bank419771966
Mansfield320231974
Harbuck320001996
Silerton320242024
Willis Sprng220232023
Smokey Jct220221966
Signal Mtn120231979
Tiptonville119831972
Whiteville120221966
Big Sandy120162016
Cornpone119931993
Humboldt119811968
Pond Creek119731973
Indian Mound119881968
Collinwood120231967
Wrigley120151966
Campbellsville120122012
Lewis Forest120121966
Belotes Bend119701970
Petersburg120092000
Silver Pt120241984
Union Hill120001968
Oliver Spgs120221968
Walland119691966

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.