BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Tennessee has increased: up 31% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+31%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Tennessee is projected to fall about 77% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-77%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Tennessee is projected to fall about 77% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.420.001.0
20270.410.001.0
20280.410.001.0
20290.400.001.0
20300.400.001.0

American Redstart Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording American Redstart in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elk Valley3020251970
Red Bank419771966
Mansfield320231974
Harbuck320001996
Silerton320242024
Willis Sprng220232023
Collinwood220251967
Smokey Jct220221966
Signal Mtn120231979
Tiptonville119831972
Moscow120252025
Whiteville120221966
Big Sandy120162016
Cornpone119931993
Humboldt119811968
Pond Creek119731973
Indian Mound119881968
Wrigley120151966
Campbellsville120122012
Lewis Forest120121966
Belotes Bend119701970
Petersburg120092000
Peytonsville120252025
Silver Pt120241984
Union Hill120001968

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.