BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in North Dakota has surged: up 356% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+356%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in North Dakota: up 356% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

American Redstart Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in North Dakota is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.45–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.86Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.45–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in North Dakota is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.45–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.810.401.2
20260.820.411.2
20270.830.421.2
20280.840.431.3
20290.860.451.3

American Redstart Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording American Redstart in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle Mtns920241980
Emerado420241996
Nash220102010
Carson120052005
Walcott120181989
Kempton119951995
Cooperstown120241972
Bowesmont120112011
Lakota119921992
Webster119961995
Rolla120161998
Tobacco120191968
Stanley120041972
Abercrombie119741974
Denbigh120241968
Gorham120162016
Roosevelt Pk120191982
Golva119871980
Douglas Crk120132013
Sheyenne Lk120071997

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.