BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Kentucky has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-55%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has fallen sharply in Kentucky: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Kentucky is projected to rise about 112% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+112%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Kentucky is projected to rise about 112% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.000.78
20260.310.000.78
20270.300.000.78
20280.300.000.78
20290.300.000.78

American Redstart Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording American Redstart in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Paintsville519951979
Staffordsvil519971996
Campton520212011
Cumberlnd Gp420181966
Beattyville419991966
Phelps419971979
Apex220072007
Mckee219751970
Pine Ridge219781966
Kehoe219821972
Beattyville 2220242006
Lovelacevile120241979
Mammoth Cave120001995
Keysburg119761976
Monticello120221968
Bardwell120001967
Pippa Passes119971988
Levee119771972
Million119731973
Carter120241976
Hustonville120071973
Kehoe 2120192005
Demunbruns120001968
Gatewood119851984
Eastview119931976

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.