BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in South Dakota has surged: up 184% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+184%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in South Dakota: up 184% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Redstart Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in South Dakota is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.09–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in South Dakota is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.09–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.070.49
20260.290.080.50
20270.290.080.50
20280.300.090.51
20290.300.090.51

American Redstart Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording American Redstart in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Long Draw520241992
Winner219711971
Rosebud219671967
Wilmot220242022
Promise220122011
Gorman219801980
Lennox120192012
Tripp120242007
Rockyford120221988
Wind Cave Np120241999
Laplant119751971
Owanka119861986
Roubaix Lk119881967
Volunteer119691969
Custer120231968
Maurine119721972
Reva119901990
Ardmore120192013
Hill City120112011
Black Fox120142001
Norbeck120022002
Rochford120112007
Hazelrodt120172017

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.