BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Indiana has surged: up 369% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+369%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Indiana: up 369% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Indiana is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.28–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+67%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–0.9395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Indiana is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.28–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.250.90
20260.580.260.91
20270.590.260.92
20280.600.270.93
20290.610.280.93

American Redstart Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording American Redstart in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wallace1220242002
Packertown520041983
Gary219811981
Columbia Cty219831983
Brazil219671966
Belmont220241984
Spencer220151998
Shelbyville220132010
Indiana Dune220241993
Cyprss220032003
Hebron120022002
South Bend119891974
Knox120191999
Kewanna119971997
Middlebury120232022
Ellis119981975
Hoosier120241995
W Lafayette120141997
Monticello120181981
Galveston120241981
Thorntown120102010
Swayzee120022001
Wabash120212004
Pimento120222022
Friendswood120222022

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.