BirdAnalyst
Species · Illinois · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Illinois

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Illinois has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has risen sharply in Illinois: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Illinois is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Illinois is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.000.47
20260.230.000.47
20270.230.000.48
20280.230.000.48
20290.230.000.48

American Redstart Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording American Redstart in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Guilford1120231998
Sandusky620231997
St Morgan520221967
Cherry Val319951989
Lake Summerset320192003
Mascoutah Lk320241979
Sheffield220241971
Newark220181996
Monica220162008
Lake Galena220212005
Union220172017
Shannon220231995
Darmstadt220212013
Cave In Rock220182018
Mill Creek120242010
Holcomb120052004
Barrington119961995
Itasca120241995
Geneseo120181967
Wayne120231972
Sherburnvill120232023
Gulfport120231990
Chandlervill119731973
Williamsfld119901990
Cameron120232023

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.