BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Maine

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Maine has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in Maine. See the full index history below.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Maine is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Maine is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.00.0011
20264.90.0011
20274.80.0010
20284.70.0010
20294.60.0010

American Redstart Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording American Redstart in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Waite3419771977
Ludlow2919981968
Medway2220181976
Washburn2220051979
Cooper2020211975
Seboomook Lk1920141972
Turner 21820242011
Andover1820212010
Horse Mtn1720111983
Forest Sta1520001966
Northfield1419811976
Ft Fairfield1220051993
St David1220051982
Nesowadnehun1220211990
Searsport1120242002
Ashland1020081980
Cornville1020242012
Otisfield Gr920151966
Warren919901973
Hancock920121969
Clayton Lake820081977
Baker Lake820091994
Hartford720241975
Manchester719951971
Carrying Pl720241979

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.