BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Mississippi has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+14%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in Mississippi. See the full index history below.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Mississippi is projected to rise about 171% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+171%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±104.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Mississippi is projected to rise about 171% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.280.000.67
20270.280.000.67
20280.280.000.67
20290.280.000.67
20300.280.000.67

American Redstart Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording American Redstart in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace Attala620192016
Trace Lorman420192016
Warren Vick420222018
Lucien320081974
Trace Chickasaw320122012
Monticello320172017
Forest220221989
Oak Ridge Vick220212015
Duffee219871973
Trace South220192008
Olive Branch 2220172016
Lake Mary119891974
Beverly120111967
Dundee119941994
Sandy Creek120001993
Benton120011972
Delta N.F.120211995
Utica119931970
Fayette120011997
Walthall119731970
Duck Hill119691968
Lake120251966
Trace Choctaw120182012
Corinth120251977
Vicksburg Np120192016

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.