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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Mississippi has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+81%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Mississippi: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Mississippi is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Mississippi is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.000.68
20260.300.000.68
20270.300.000.68
20280.300.000.68
20290.300.000.69

American Redstart Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording American Redstart in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace Attala620192016
Trace Lorman420192016
Warren Vick420222018
Lucien320081974
Trace Chickasaw320122012
Corinth320241977
Monticello320172017
Forest220221989
Oak Ridge Vick220212015
Duffee219871973
Trace South220192008
Olive Branch 2220172016
Lake Mary119891974
Beverly120111967
Dundee119941994
Sandy Creek120001993
Benton120011972
Delta N.F.120211995
Utica119931970
Fayette120011997
Walthall119731970
Duck Hill119691968
Lake120231966
Trace Choctaw120182012
Vicksburg Np120192016

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.