BirdAnalyst
Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in New Hampshire has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-28%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in New Hampshire. See the full index history below.

American Redstart Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in New Hampshire is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 7.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 2.3–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–8.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in New Hampshire is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 7.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 2.3–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.92.69.2
20275.82.59.1
20285.72.49.0
20295.72.39.0
20305.62.38.9

American Redstart Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording American Redstart in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dixvil Notch2320171966
Crawford Not1919751966
Fitzwilliam1820251966
Jefferson Hl1420251966
Dixville Notch 21420252018
Concord1220251966
Franconia1120251966
Stratford1120251966
Clarksville1020251966
Glen1020251975
Hopkinton920251966
Peterborough620251966
Canterbury620251966
Lempster620251966
Wilmot520251966
Jeffers Ntch520251993
Epsom420251966
Strafford420251966
Mt Chocorua420251966
Walpole420251966
Marlow420251966
Milan420251966
Dover220251966
Brentwood119981966
Gilmantn I W120251969

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.