BirdAnalyst
Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in New Hampshire has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-24%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in New Hampshire. See the full index history below.

American Redstart Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in New Hampshire is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 7.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 2.2–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–8.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in New Hampshire is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 7.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 2.2–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.92.69.2
20265.82.59.2
20275.72.49.1
20285.72.39.0
20295.62.28.9

American Redstart Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording American Redstart in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dixvil Notch2320171966
Dixville Notch 22120242018
Crawford Not1919751966
Jefferson Hl1620241966
Stratford1520241966
Jeffers Ntch1320241993
Epsom1220231966
Canterbury1220241966
Milan1120241966
Hopkinton920241966
Concord920241966
Mt Chocorua920241966
Walpole920241966
Fitzwilliam720241966
Dover720231966
Strafford720241966
Lempster720241966
Wilmot620241966
Marlow620241966
Clarksville620241966
Franconia420241966
Glen320241975
Peterborough220241966
Brentwood119981966
Gilmantn I W120241969

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.