BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in North Carolina has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-39%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

American Redstart Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in North Carolina is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.04–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in North Carolina is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.04–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.520.041.0
20260.520.041.0
20270.520.041.0
20280.520.041.0
20290.530.041.0

American Redstart Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording American Redstart in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Spring Hope620242002
Dismal Swamp520241993
Cullowhee320241974
Green Swamp320042003
Oteen320241980
N. Mills Riv219941994
California220081980
Copeland219801976
Ernul220022002
Hamlet219971997
Cokesbury220182002
Hendersonvil220211999
Table Rock220011994
Monticello220082000
Merrimon119851979
Wards Corner120051967
Hallsboro120142011
Raeford120191990
Sheep Ridge120092009
Uwharrie Nf119981997
Speed120221999
Kinston120121980
Jordan120081968
Rose120062000
Saxapahaw119771967

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.