BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in South Carolina has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-9%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

American Redstart Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.10 (95% range 0.03–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.10 (95% range 0.03–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.090.030.16
20250.090.030.16
20260.090.030.16
20270.090.030.16
20280.100.030.16

American Redstart Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording American Redstart in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Joanna420032002
Prosperity220052005
Plum Branch220231993
Sandhills119981996
Foreston119881988
New Holland119921992
Wagener120021997
Salem Xrd119861986
Cauthens Xrd119831983
Barton Creek119811978
Chesnee119951995
Carvers Bay120082008

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.