BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Montana has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+22%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in Montana. See the full index history below.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Montana is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Montana is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.390.000.88
20260.380.000.87
20270.370.000.86
20280.360.000.85
20290.360.000.85

American Redstart Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording American Redstart in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Libby Dam1020241979
Fish Creek820241996
Swan Lake520242016
St Mary320021977
Logan Pass320241980
Cleveland320241982
East Glacier Park320242024
Red Rock319821982
Ninemile320241993
Kalispell220191968
Elevation Mt220242018
Pryor Mtn.220211995
Arlee220241971
Circle220132013
Reed Point220241977
Miles City220212016
Painted Rock220191992
Victor120001993
Threemile Wa119981996
Cramer Creek120182017
Glen120092009
St Regis120071977
Augusta119881988
Highwood120242014
Woodman120241968

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.