BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Montana has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+6%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in Montana. See the full index history below.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Montana is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Montana is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.360.000.85
20270.360.000.84
20280.350.000.84
20290.340.000.83
20300.340.000.82

American Redstart Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording American Redstart in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fish Creek820241996
Libby Dam320251979
St Mary320021977
Logan Pass320241980
Cleveland320251982
Inside Road320251992
East Glacier Park320242024
Red Rock319821982
Ninemile320251993
Kalispell220191968
Pryor Mtn.220211995
Arlee220241971
Circle220132013
Woodman220251968
Swan Lake220252016
Miles City220212016
Painted Rock220191992
Victor120001993
Threemile Wa119981996
Cramer Creek120182017
Glen120092009
Elevation Mt120252018
St Regis120071977
Augusta119881988
Highwood120242014

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.