BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Washington has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-63%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has fallen sharply in Washington: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Washington is projected to fall about 87% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-87%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Washington is projected to fall about 87% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.28
20260.040.000.28
20270.030.000.28
20280.030.000.27
20290.030.000.27

American Redstart Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording American Redstart in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Northport620171996
L. Wenatchee520242022
Cusick420241982
Keller319981968
Mazama320001999
Lake Chelan219951995
Newhalem120241982
Twisp119911969
Chewelah120101977
L Pend O Nwr120231996
Reardan119891970
Winthrop119851985
Twin Lakes120242021
White Chuck120232023
Nighthawk119991999
Curlew120011992
Waitsburg120031995
Omak Creek120072007
Laurier120192016
Mukilteo119941994

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.