BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Washington has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-46%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in Washington. See the full index history below.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Washington is projected to fall about 86% by 2030 — from 0.31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-86%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Washington is projected to fall about 86% by 2030 — from 0.31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.000.31
20270.050.000.30
20280.050.000.30
20290.050.000.30
20300.040.000.29

American Redstart Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording American Redstart in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Northport620171996
Cusick520251982
L. Wenatchee420252022
Keller319981968
Mazama320001999
Laurier320252016
Newhalem220251982
Lake Chelan219951995
Twisp119911969
Chewelah120101977
L Pend O Nwr120231996
Reardan119891970
Winthrop119851985
Twin Lakes120242021
White Chuck120252023
Nighthawk119991999
Curlew120011992
Waitsburg120031995
Omak Creek120072007
Mukilteo119941994

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.