BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Vermont has edged up: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in Vermont. See the full index history below.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Vermont is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 7.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 0.49–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–9.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Vermont is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 7.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 0.49–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.30.679.9
20275.30.629.9
20285.20.589.8
20295.20.549.8
20305.10.499.8

American Redstart Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording American Redstart in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Waterville2619801967
Shaftsbury2520251966
North Pownal2420251967
Bristol1520251995
Gaysville1420251966
Marlboro1220251966
S Wallingfrd1220221966
St Johnsbury920251970
W Rutland820251966
Hinesburg819941966
Stowe820241988
Post Mills720251966
Fletcher720251969
East Haven620251966
Greensboro520251967
Landgrove420241966
Northfld Fls320251980
Newbury320041986
Stratton220251966
S Reading220231966
Grand Isle220171968
Newbury 2220232005
Middlesex120241968
East Calais120231966
Hardwick120241966

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.