BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Vermont has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in Vermont. See the full index history below.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Vermont is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.35–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–9.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Vermont is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.35–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.20.549.8
20265.10.499.8
20275.10.459.7
20285.00.409.7
20295.00.359.6

American Redstart Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording American Redstart in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shaftsbury3320241966
Waterville2619801967
Marlboro1820241966
W Rutland1820241966
S Wallingfrd1220221966
Fletcher1120241969
St Johnsbury920241970
Hinesburg819941966
Stowe820241988
Bristol820181995
Northfld Fls620211980
Landgrove420241966
Gaysville420211966
East Haven420241966
North Pownal320241967
Newbury320041986
S Reading220231966
Post Mills220241966
Greensboro220241967
Grand Isle220171968
Newbury 2220232005
Stratton120241966
Middlesex120241968
East Calais120231966
Hardwick120241966

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.