BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Louisiana has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+34%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Louisiana is projected to rise about 135% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±187.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+135%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±187.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Louisiana is projected to rise about 135% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±187.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.470.001.2
20260.470.001.2
20270.460.001.2
20280.460.001.2
20290.460.001.2

American Redstart Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording American Redstart in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fishville820122012
Atchafalaya520241989
Chatham319731967
Tensas Nwr219961987
Linville220072000
Plettenberg220221974
Mayflower220111973
Ramah220151998
Flat Creek220242024
Zwolle220232000
Fishville 2220212019
Lafitte119761976
Roseland119771977
Easton119891975
De Ridder120132013
Shaw120122001
Derry119731972
Cypress119721972
Fort Polk119721972
Clay120071971
Longstreet119941980
Greensburg120172011
Floyd120092007
Marion119941994
Grayson120192019

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.