BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Alaska has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

-34%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in Alaska. See the full index history below.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Alaska is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Alaska is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19942029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.19
20260.050.000.19
20270.050.000.18
20280.050.000.18
20290.040.000.18

American Redstart Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording American Redstart in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hyder1320091994
Haines520241994
Stikine River320221998
Skagway120241994
Juneau120242023

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.