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Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in West Virginia has surged: up 198% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+198%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in West Virginia: up 198% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.8 (95% range 5.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.5–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.8 (95% range 5.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.35.012
20278.45.112
20288.55.212
20298.65.412
20308.85.512

American Redstart Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording American Redstart in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stollings4220211986
Nicut3120251986
Valley Head3120251970
Sutton3120251976
Three Forks3020251971
Smithfield2920251993
Meadowville2520251972
Yawkey2320241966
Cedarville2220231983
Smoot2020251980
Breeden1820241986
Moundsville1820251972
Bowden1520251993
Bismark1420251976
Pedro1220251979
Meadland1220251997
Olcott1220241967
Mcdonald1220231987
Ringgold1220252025
Canaan1120251974
Hubbardstown1020251967
Green Bank1020251977
Bramwell920251978
Strange Crk920251982
Clendenin820251979

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.