BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in West Virginia has surged: up 181% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+181%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in West Virginia: up 181% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in West Virginia is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.6 (95% range 5.3–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.3–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in West Virginia is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.6 (95% range 5.3–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.14.811
20268.24.912
20278.35.012
20288.45.112
20298.65.312

American Redstart Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording American Redstart in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stollings4220211986
Three Forks3520241971
Valley Head3320241970
Meadowville2720241972
Yawkey2320241966
Smithfield2320241993
Cedarville2220231983
Bowden2120241993
Welch1820231980
Breeden1820241986
Mo Of Seneca1420241969
Moundsville1420241972
Meadland1320241997
Olcott1220241967
Mcdonald1220231987
Bebee1220211978
Clinton1220241967
Ruthbelle1220241975
Sutton1120241976
Denmar920242005
Richwood920241980
Dailey920241973
Albright819741966
Hanover720241980
Nicut720241986

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.