BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Nebraska has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

+63%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has risen sharply in Nebraska: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.160.000.34
20270.160.000.34
20280.170.000.34
20290.170.000.34
20300.170.000.34

American Redstart Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording American Redstart in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine Ridge620251999
Thurston320251978
Crawford220241995
Julian119781978
Johnson119981998
Oglala Nat. Grass.120142002
Gretna120052005
Irvington119671967
Crookston120252019
Midway120222001

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.