BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Maryland

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Maryland has surged: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+90%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Maryland: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Maryland is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.2–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Maryland is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.2–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.81.12.5
20261.91.22.5
20271.91.22.6
20281.91.22.6
20291.91.22.6

American Redstart Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording American Redstart in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oldtown2020241970
Jennings1520241996
Green Ridge1420241995
Smithsburg1120141967
Wolfsville1020241966
Largo1019811967
Finzel920241995
Steyer720241996
Potomac Park520241970
Floyd420241966
Vienna419801976
Earlton420242014
Vindex320241966
Tall Timbers319811969
Pomonkey320241967
Easton319821982
Piney Grove320241999
Berlin320241980
Ijamsville320241986
Silver Spg219771966
Theodore220081968
Elkton219971967
Snow Hill219751966
Jessup220242013
Severna Park219891982

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.