BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in Maryland

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Maryland has surged: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+95%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Maryland: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 1.3–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 1.3–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.91.22.5
20271.91.22.6
20281.91.22.6
20291.91.32.6
20302.01.32.6

American Redstart Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording American Redstart in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Green Ridge2320251995
Oldtown1220251970
Smithsburg1120141967
Pomonkey1120251967
Largo1019811967
Jennings720251996
Steyer720241996
Finzel620251995
Vienna419801976
Earlton420242014
Vindex320241966
Wolfsville320251966
Tall Timbers319811969
Easton319821982
Jessup320252013
Floyd220251966
Potomac Park220251970
Silver Spg219771966
Theodore220081968
Elkton219971967
Snow Hill219751966
Berlin220251980
Severna Park219891982
Island Creek220231992
Mt Nebo119911970

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.