BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Wisconsin has surged: up 237% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+237%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Wisconsin: up 237% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.9 (95% range 4.2–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.9 (95% range 4.2–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.63.97.2
20275.64.07.3
20285.74.17.3
20295.84.27.4
20305.94.27.5

American Redstart Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording American Redstart in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Washington I5320251967
Amberg2520251980
Bashaw2520251998
Gresham2220251998
Cumberland2020251966
Stevens Pt1620231968
Minong1520251967
Bayfield1520251967
Union Twp1520251975
Crandon1520251967
Loraine1420251966
Gilman1420251967
Rib Lake1420251966
Esdaile1220251966
Mellen1220251998
Weirgor Springs1220251999
Chaffey1120251966
Wausaukee1120251980
Flambeau1120251998
Exeland1020251968
Merrill1020251966
Mather1020231966
Eagle River920251966
Hollister920251967
Hatfield919981970

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.