BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Wisconsin has surged: up 245% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+245%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Wisconsin: up 245% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.7 (95% range 4.1–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.7 (95% range 4.1–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.43.87.1
20265.53.97.1
20275.63.97.2
20285.64.07.3
20295.74.17.3

American Redstart Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording American Redstart in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Washington I5820241967
Cumberland2720241966
Amberg2320241980
Gresham2020241998
Esdaile1620241966
Stevens Pt1620231968
Grand View1520241966
Bayfield1520241967
Union Twp1520241975
Flambeau1420241998
Prairie Du Chien1420241998
Iron River1320241967
Rib Lake1320241966
Weirgor Springs1320241999
Exeland1220241968
Crandon1220241967
Wausaukee1220241980
Mellen1220241998
Gilman1120241967
Merrill1120241966
Gilmanton1020241971
Mather1020231966
Hollister920241967
Hatfield919981970
N Freedom820241966

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.