BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Connecticut has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has risen sharply in Connecticut: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Connecticut is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 5.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.9–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Connecticut is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 5.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.85.612
20278.95.612
20289.05.712
20299.15.812
20309.25.912

American Redstart Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording American Redstart in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sherman2920191972
Warren2820111972
Warren 22720252016
Uncasville2320251977
Woodstock 21720252016
New Hartford1319871972
Granby1320251988
Willimantic1120181967
Long Hill920191974
E Hartland819921966
Woodstock520071968
Mystic320221973
No Woodbury320251967
Southington320241973
New Hartford320241994
Mid Haddam220251973
Buckingham120221966
Westbrook120231970
Greenwich120181972
Danbury120221968

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradodelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.