BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Connecticut has increased: up 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in Connecticut. See the full index history below.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Connecticut is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 5.7–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.7–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Connecticut is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 5.7–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.65.312
20268.75.412
20278.85.512
20288.85.612
20298.95.712

American Redstart Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording American Redstart in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sherman2920191972
Warren2820111972
Uncasville2220241977
Woodstock 21620242016
New Hartford1319871972
Willimantic1120181967
Mid Haddam1120241973
Granby1120241988
Long Hill920191974
E Hartland819921966
Woodstock520071968
Warren 2420242016
Mystic320221973
No Woodbury320241967
Southington320241973
New Hartford320241994
Buckingham120221966
Westbrook120231970
Greenwich120181972
Danbury120221968

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradodelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.