BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in New Jersey has surged: up 872% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+872%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in New Jersey: up 872% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in New Jersey is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.4–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in New Jersey is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.4–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.22.24.3
20263.32.24.3
20273.32.34.4
20283.42.44.4
20293.52.44.5

American Redstart Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording American Redstart in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
High Point2420241977
Kemah Lake920241967
Bloomsbury520241969
Pomona520241979
Bennett Mill419761966
Deepwater219771977
Holmansville219951970
New Bedford219971971
Croton220071970
Hope219941970
Cranbury219911987
Spraguetown 3220242023
Winslow220101989
Ramseysburg220241995
Woodbury Hgt120152008
Greenwich120211973
Six Points120231978
Spraguetown 2120122012
Albion119721966
Sandbrook120021970
Midvale120211971
Dover120191977
Pottersville120151977
Gillette120221992
Keyport120211990

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.