BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in New Jersey has surged: up 778% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+778%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in New Jersey: up 778% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in New Jersey is projected to rise about 86% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.3–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+86%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in New Jersey is projected to rise about 86% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.3–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.22.14.3
20273.22.24.3
20283.32.24.4
20293.42.34.4
20303.42.34.5

American Redstart Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording American Redstart in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
High Point1720251977
Kemah Lake920241967
Bloomsbury620251969
Bennett Mill419761966
Pomona320251979
Spraguetown 3320252023
Deepwater219771977
Holmansville219951970
New Bedford219971971
Croton220071970
Hope219941970
Cranbury219911987
Winslow220101989
Woodbury Hgt120152008
Greenwich120211973
Six Points120231978
Spraguetown 2120122012
Albion119721966
Sandbrook120251970
Midvale120211971
Dover120191977
Pottersville120151977
Gillette120251992
Keyport120211990
Roosevelt120221986

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.