BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Virginia has surged: up 438% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+438%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Virginia: up 438% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Virginia is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.4–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Virginia is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.4–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.92.15.6
20273.92.25.7
20284.02.25.8
20294.12.35.8
20304.12.45.9

American Redstart Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording American Redstart in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Meadows8120251993
Front Royal5620251993
Shenandoa Np3920251993
W Augusta1220251967
Amherst1020251975
Pine Mtn.1020251996
Loft Mtn920231993
Bald Knob620251992
Mountain Lk.620181992
Stanley520252000
Tryme520251995
Gr North Mtn520251993
Isom420241969
Ivanhoe419661966
Rural Retrt420251982
Hebron420091992
Dismal Swamp420161992
Quinby319681968
Elamsville320141978
New Market320251992
Taylorstown219851985
Nat Tunnel220251996
Partlow220071989
Covington220251966
Newbern219701970

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.