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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Pennsylvania has surged: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+143%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
131Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Pennsylvania: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.7 (95% range 5.3–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.3–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.7 (95% range 5.3–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.45.07.9
20266.55.18.0
20276.65.18.0
20286.65.28.1
20296.75.38.2

American Redstart Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording American Redstart in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laurel Hill4120241978
Mill Run3520241978
Tussey Mtn.2720241993
Broad Mtn.2620241993
Rasselas2520221970
Pine Gr Mill2420241968
Poyntelle2220241969
Duboistown2220241988
Betula2120221973
Eldred2020221973
Hop Bottom1920241967
Duvall1820211975
Mawr Glen1520241982
Honesdale1520241972
Ellenton1520241982
Marsh Hill1420241983
Canadensis1420241969
Ltl Pine Cr1420241990
English Ctr1319891987
Starlight1319991970
Geeseytown1320241987
Starlight 21220242000
Roulette1120211976
Martinsburg1120241970
Landisburg1120241978

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.