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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Pennsylvania has surged: up 131% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+131%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
131Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Pennsylvania: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 5.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 5.3–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.3–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 5.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 5.3–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.45.07.9
20276.55.08.0
20286.65.18.0
20296.65.28.1
20306.75.38.2

American Redstart Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording American Redstart in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mill Run4420251978
Tussey Mtn.2720251993
Laurel Hill2620251978
Rasselas2520221970
Duboistown2220241988
Betula2120221973
Eldred2020221973
Honesdale1820251972
Duvall1820211975
Poyntelle1720251969
Geeseytown1720251987
Starlight 21420252000
English Ctr1319891987
Mawr Glen1320251982
Starlight1319991970
Ellenton1320251982
Broad Mtn.1320251993
Roulette1120211976
Marsh Hill1120251983
Susquehanna1120251971
Munson1120251987
Jefferson1120251973
Pine Gr Mill1020251968
New Ringgold1020251966
Whig Hill920251966

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.