BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Ohio has surged: up 666% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+666%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Ohio: up 666% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Ohio is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 2.0–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Ohio is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 2.0–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.61.83.5
20262.71.83.5
20272.71.93.6
20282.81.93.6
20292.82.03.7

American Redstart Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording American Redstart in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar Hollow3020241992
Tick Ridge1820191993
Zaleski S.F.1520241992
Ashley1019961990
Dell920191993
Shawnee S.F. 2820192001
Stonecreek720241996
Dresden620241971
Birmingham520242022
Ray520241992
Shawnee S.F.420001992
Lenox420241966
Smithfield420241988
Wilgus420192009
Bolins Mills420241967
New Marshfld320241967
Pomeroy320221967
Mohican S.F.320241993
Bloomville220191992
Wayne N.F.220241993
Pittsfield220242002
Baxter Ridge220141999
New Somerset219821974
Darrtown219691969
Omega220241983

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.