BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Ohio has surged: up 562% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+562%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Ohio: up 562% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Ohio is projected to rise about 78% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.9–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+78%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Ohio is projected to rise about 78% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.9–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.61.73.5
20272.61.83.5
20282.71.83.6
20292.71.83.6
20302.81.93.6

American Redstart Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording American Redstart in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar Hollow3020241992
Tick Ridge1820191993
Ashley1019961990
Stonecreek1020251996
Dell920191993
Zaleski S.F.820251992
Dresden820251971
Shawnee S.F. 2820192001
Ray820251992
Bolins Mills620251967
Birmingham520242022
Shawnee S.F.420001992
Wilgus420192009
Lenox320251966
Pomeroy320221967
Mohican S.F.320251993
Bloomville220191992
Pittsfield220242002
Baxter Ridge220141999
Smithfield220251988
New Somerset219821974
Darrtown219691969
New Marshfld220251967
Omega220241983
Scioto Trail220131992

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.