BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Alabama has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in Alabama. See the full index history below.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Alabama is projected to rise about 122% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.03–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±185.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+122%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±185.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Alabama is projected to rise about 122% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.03–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±185.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.710.011.4
20260.720.011.4
20270.730.021.4
20280.730.031.4
20290.740.031.4

American Redstart Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording American Redstart in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sprott-Cahaba Riv6720141999
Gainestown Ferry5420151999
Greensboro620241966
Riderwood320181966
Wedgeworth320241986
Helicon320241996
St Florian219871987
Valhermoso Spgs219671967
Swaim220181966
Dawson219681968
Sunny Eve220171967
Greensport220221966
Liberty220221967
Warrior Std220241970
Brantley220231966
Borden Springs 2220102001
Beatrice220211966
Latham219671967
Liberty City220092005
Odenville220182008
Vina220231998
Vernon220222013
Triana220022002
Hillsboro119941983
Trade119731966

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.