BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Arkansas has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-78%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has collapsed in Arkansas: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.200.000.55
20270.200.000.55
20280.200.000.55
20290.190.000.54
20300.190.000.54

American Redstart Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording American Redstart in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stark319681967
Farwell320162010
Marshall320212011
Harrisburg219671967
Saffell219691969
Compton220221967
Boston Mtn.220251994
Old Milo119821967
Ramsey119971967
Locust Bayou119731973
Stamps120171973
Hope120112006
Ashdown119921992
Ozark Nf120252016
Magazine Mtn120142007
South Bend119931993
Crows119671967
Poyen120031968
Hollywood120191969
Blakely119821982
Hatfield 2120222022
Crowley'S Ridge120252011
Rupert120241967
Coal Hill119811981
Lurton119971969

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.