BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Missouri has surged: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+121%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Missouri: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Missouri is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.07–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Missouri is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.07–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.060.35
20260.210.060.35
20270.210.070.35
20280.210.070.36
20290.220.070.36

American Redstart Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording American Redstart in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Centerville720242003
Kahoka319671967
Williamsvill320242014
Bennett320241994
Palace320242014
Viburnum220242018
Bolckow219861974
Tarkio219701970
Crane220092009
Graniteville220241994
Clementine 2220072007
Deventer119981973
Peace Valley120241993
Sweden119851985
Cassville119911991
Pineville120182016
Cp Girardeau120212007
Cascade120242019
Cameron120172017
Akers120242012
Wesco120142014
Clementine119961988
Kahoka2120022002
Watson120121993
Filley120071976

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.