BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Minnesota has surged: up 270% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+270%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Minnesota: up 270% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.5 (95% range 4.9–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.5 (95% range 4.9–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.24.57.8
20266.34.67.9
20276.44.78.0
20286.44.88.1
20296.54.98.2

American Redstart Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording American Redstart in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tamarac Nwr6020241991
Lockport3620241967
Hart Lake3220241967
Jordan2720231993
Hovland2320241973
Cohasset2320221973
Brook Park2120241998
Wigwam Bay2020231968
Pine River2020241967
Nebish2020231982
Caledonia 22020242013
Bigfork1820241993
Whitewater1820001994
Sawbill Camp1720241993
Backus1520241967
Bemidji1519801967
Debs1520241969
Mahtowa1520231993
Mille Lacs1120241970
Waskish1120241978
Sherburne Nr1120241996
Mcgregor1020241993
Sawbill Lndg920241973
Bena919771967
Ashby920211997

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.