BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Minnesota has surged: up 277% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+277%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Minnesota: up 277% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.7 (95% range 5.0–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–8.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.7 (95% range 5.0–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.34.78.0
20276.44.88.1
20286.54.88.2
20296.64.98.3
20306.75.08.4

American Redstart Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording American Redstart in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tamarac Nwr6020241991
Lockport3320251967
Nebish3220251982
Caledonia 23120252013
Hart Lake3020251967
Hovland2720251973
Jordan2620251993
Cohasset2320221973
Wigwam Bay2020231968
Debs2020251969
Brook Park1920251998
Whitewater1820001994
Bemidji1519801967
Mahtowa1520231993
Bigfork1520251993
Millville1420251968
Backus1420251967
Sawbill Camp1420251993
Sawbill Lndg1220251973
Mille Lacs1120241970
St Stephen1020251967
Greenbush1020251997
Bena919771967
Waskish920251978
Ashby920211997

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.