BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart Population Trend in Idaho

All statesForest birds

American Redstart in Idaho has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-71%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Redstart Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has fallen sharply in Idaho: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

American Redstart Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Idaho is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±118.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Idaho is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.020.000.35
20270.010.000.34
20280.010.000.34
20290.000.000.33
20300.000.000.33

American Redstart Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording American Redstart in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coolin520251986
Marble Creek319901990
Cascade319841984
Naples220251972
Mivoden120181977
Avery120162014
Lolo Pass119931993
N Fork Cda R119931993
Pierce120072007
Rochat Divde120241998
Cabarton120241986
Centerville119841984

American Redstart Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.