BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

American Redstart in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-79%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has collapsed in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Redstart In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 81% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-81%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±101.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 81% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.26
20260.030.000.25
20270.030.000.25
20280.020.000.24
20290.020.000.24

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording American Redstart in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FishvilleLOUISIANA82012
StarkARKANSAS31968
ChathamLOUISIANA31973
Flat CreekLOUISIANA22024
ZwolleLOUISIANA22023
Fishville 2LOUISIANA22021
LinvilleLOUISIANA22007
New WaverlyTEXAS22012
Old MiloARKANSAS11982
RamseyARKANSAS11997
Locust BayouARKANSAS11973
StampsARKANSAS12017
HopeARKANSAS12011
AshdownARKANSAS11992
CrowsARKANSAS11967
PoyenARKANSAS12003
HollywoodARKANSAS12019
BlakelyARKANSAS11982
Coal HillARKANSAS11981
SimsARKANSAS12024
LockesburgARKANSAS12011
SpringhillARKANSAS12021
PrincetonARKANSAS12007
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS12022
Magazine MtnARKANSAS12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.