BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

American Redstart in Central Hardwoods has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has risen sharply in Central Hardwoods: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.10–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.10–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.080.46
20260.270.090.46
20270.280.090.46
20280.280.090.47
20290.280.100.47

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording American Redstart in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CentervilleMISSOURI72024
SanduskyILLINOIS62023
FarwellARKANSAS32016
MarshallARKANSAS32021
WilliamsvillMISSOURI32024
BennettMISSOURI32024
PalaceMISSOURI32024
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA21967
SwaimALABAMA22018
TrianaALABAMA22002
ComptonARKANSAS22022
RudyARKANSAS22022
Boston Mtn.ARKANSAS22024
Cave In RockILLINOIS22018
BrazilINDIANA21967
BelmontINDIANA22024
SpencerINDIANA22015
CyprssINDIANA22003
ApexKENTUCKY22007
CraneMISSOURI22009
GranitevilleMISSOURI22024
Clementine 2MISSOURI22007
ViburnumMISSOURI22024
HillsboroALABAMA11994
ElkmontALABAMA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.