BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

American Redstart in Southeastern Coastal Plain has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
132Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

American Redstart In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.15–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±131.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–0.7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±131.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.15–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±131.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.450.140.76
20260.460.140.77
20270.460.150.77
20280.460.150.78
20290.470.150.78

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording American Redstart in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sprott-Cahaba RivALABAMA672014
Gainestown FerryALABAMA542015
GreensboroALABAMA62024
Trace AttalaMISSISSIPPI62019
Spring HopeNORTH-CAROLINA62024
Dismal SwampNORTH-CAROLINA52024
BargesGEORGIA42024
Trace LormanMISSISSIPPI42019
Dismal SwampVIRGINIA42016
RiderwoodALABAMA32018
WedgeworthALABAMA32024
HeliconALABAMA32024
LucienMISSISSIPPI32008
CorinthMISSISSIPPI32024
MonticelloMISSISSIPPI32017
Trace ChickasawMISSISSIPPI32012
Green SwampNORTH-CAROLINA32004
MansfieldTENNESSEE32023
SilertonTENNESSEE32024
St FlorianALABAMA21987
LibertyALABAMA22022
Warrior StdALABAMA22024
BrantleyALABAMA22023
BeatriceALABAMA22021
LathamALABAMA21967

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.