BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

American Redstart in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 189% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+189%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
352Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.1 (95% range 5.2–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.1 (95% range 5.2–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.85.06.7
20265.95.06.7
20276.05.16.8
20286.05.26.9
20296.15.27.0

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording American Redstart in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big MeadowsVIRGINIA672024
Front RoyalVIRGINIA592024
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA422021
Laurel HillPENNSYLVANIA412024
Mill RunPENNSYLVANIA352024
Three ForksWEST-VIRGINIA352024
Valley HeadWEST-VIRGINIA332024
Tar HollowOHIO302024
Tussey Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA272024
MeadowvilleWEST-VIRGINIA272024
Broad Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA262024
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA252022
High PointNEW-JERSEY242024
Pine Gr MillPENNSYLVANIA242024
YawkeyWEST-VIRGINIA232024
SmithfieldWEST-VIRGINIA232024
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA222024
DuboistownPENNSYLVANIA222024
CedarvilleWEST-VIRGINIA222023
BetulaPENNSYLVANIA212022
Elk ValleyTENNESSEE212022
BowdenWEST-VIRGINIA212024
OldtownMARYLAND202024
CorbettsvileNEW-YORK202024
OneontaNEW-YORK202024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.