BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

American Redstart in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 190% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+190%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
354Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 189% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.2 (95% range 5.3–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.3–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.2 (95% range 5.3–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.95.16.7
20276.05.16.8
20286.05.26.9
20296.15.37.0
20306.25.37.0

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording American Redstart in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big MeadowsVIRGINIA812025
Front RoyalVIRGINIA562025
Mill RunPENNSYLVANIA442025
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA422021
Shenandoa NpVIRGINIA392025
NicutWEST-VIRGINIA312025
Valley HeadWEST-VIRGINIA312025
SuttonWEST-VIRGINIA312025
Tar HollowOHIO302024
Elk ValleyTENNESSEE302025
Three ForksWEST-VIRGINIA302025
SmithfieldWEST-VIRGINIA292025
Tussey Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA272025
Laurel HillPENNSYLVANIA262025
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA252022
MeadowvilleWEST-VIRGINIA252025
Green RidgeMARYLAND232025
YawkeyWEST-VIRGINIA232024
DuboistownPENNSYLVANIA222024
CedarvilleWEST-VIRGINIA222023
CorbettsvileNEW-YORK212025
BetulaPENNSYLVANIA212022
EldredPENNSYLVANIA202022
SmootWEST-VIRGINIA202025
McdonoughNEW-YORK182017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.