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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

American Redstart in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-53%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has fallen sharply in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Redstart In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 513% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±255.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+513%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±255.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 513% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±255.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.510.001.3
20270.510.001.3
20280.510.001.3
20290.510.001.3
20300.510.001.3

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording American Redstart in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI42022
HarrisburgARKANSAS21967
SaffellARKANSAS21969
MayflowerLOUISIANA22011
RamahLOUISIANA22015
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA21996
South BendARKANSAS11993
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS12025
BardwellKENTUCKY12000
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY12025
RoselandLOUISIANA11977
ShawLOUISIANA12012
FloydLOUISIANA12009
FrogmoreLOUISIANA12011
ConcordLOUISIANA12009
Port AllenLOUISIANA12004
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA12025
DundeeMISSISSIPPI11994
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI11978
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI12021
DeventerMISSOURI11998
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI12021
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE11983
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.