BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

American Redstart in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+173%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
119Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.10–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.10–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.090.30
20260.200.090.30
20270.200.100.30
20280.200.100.30
20290.200.100.31

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording American Redstart in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WallaceINDIANA122024
AshleyOHIO101996
MaquoketaIOWA62024
ThurstonNEBRASKA62024
St MorganILLINOIS52022
West LibertyIOWA42024
FrontenacMINNESOTA42024
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS32024
Lake SummersetILLINOIS32019
KahokaMISSOURI31967
River FallsWISCONSIN32022
SheffieldILLINOIS22024
NewarkILLINOIS22018
MonicaILLINOIS22016
ShannonILLINOIS22023
DarmstadtILLINOIS22021
UnionILLINOIS22017
GaryINDIANA21981
ShelbyvilleINDIANA22013
Cedar ValleyIOWA21995
LafayetteIOWA22024
Rock CreekKANSAS21994
Ash CreekMINNESOTA22019
BolckowMISSOURI21986
TarkioMISSOURI21970

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.