BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

American Redstart in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 182% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+182%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 182% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.21 (95% range 0.10–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.21 (95% range 0.10–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.200.100.30
20270.200.100.30
20280.200.100.30
20290.200.100.31
20300.210.100.31

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording American Redstart in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WallaceINDIANA122024
AshleyOHIO101996
St MorganILLINOIS52022
GeneseoILLINOIS42025
SherrardILLINOIS42025
FrontenacMINNESOTA42024
SenecaILLINOIS32025
West LibertyIOWA32025
KahokaMISSOURI31967
ThurstonNEBRASKA32025
River FallsWISCONSIN32025
SheffieldILLINOIS22024
NewarkILLINOIS22018
Terre HauteILLINOIS22025
MonicaILLINOIS22016
DarmstadtILLINOIS22021
UnionILLINOIS22017
GaryINDIANA21981
ShelbyvilleINDIANA22013
Cedar ValleyIOWA21995
MaquoketaIOWA22025
DinsdaleIOWA22025
TiptonIOWA22025
LafayetteIOWA22024
Rock CreekKANSAS21994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.