BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

American Redstart in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 139% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+139%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 139% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.7–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.7–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.82.65.0
20263.92.65.1
20273.92.75.1
20283.92.75.1
20293.92.75.1

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording American Redstart in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShaftsburyVERMONT332024
PulaskiNEW-YORK312024
AusterlitzNEW-YORK172024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK162024
CayugaNEW-YORK122024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK122024
OgdensburgNEW-YORK122024
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK112024
NashvilleNEW-YORK112018
WatertownNEW-YORK102012
North EastonNEW-YORK92024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA92023
SalemNEW-YORK82024
HinesburgVERMONT81994
BristolVERMONT82018
West SenecaNEW-YORK71986
ClintonNEW-YORK72012
N WilmurtNEW-YORK61998
WillsboroNEW-YORK62024
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA62023
W ShokanNEW-YORK52019
CastileNEW-YORK52024
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK52024
OneidaNEW-YORK52010
ParishvilleNEW-YORK52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.