BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

American Redstart in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 139% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+139%Since 1968
81Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

American Redstart has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 139% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.7–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029
3.9Projected 2029 index
2.7–5.195% range
±15.3%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.82.65.0
20263.92.65.1
20273.92.75.1
20283.92.75.1
20293.92.75.1

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording American Redstart in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
ShaftsburyVERMONT332024
PulaskiNEW-YORK312024
AusterlitzNEW-YORK172024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK162024
CayugaNEW-YORK122024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK122024
OgdensburgNEW-YORK122024
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK112024
NashvilleNEW-YORK112018
WatertownNEW-YORK102012
North EastonNEW-YORK92024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA92023
SalemNEW-YORK82024
HinesburgVERMONT81994
BristolVERMONT82018
West SenecaNEW-YORK71986
ClintonNEW-YORK72012
N WilmurtNEW-YORK61998
WillsboroNEW-YORK62024
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA62023
W ShokanNEW-YORK52019
CastileNEW-YORK52024
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK52024
OneidaNEW-YORK52010
ParishvilleNEW-YORK52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.