BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

American Redstart in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 167% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+167%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 167% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.8–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.8–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.02.75.3
20274.02.75.3
20284.02.75.3
20294.12.85.4
20304.12.85.4

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording American Redstart in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShaftsburyVERMONT252025
North PownalVERMONT242025
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK212025
OgdensburgNEW-YORK192025
AusterlitzNEW-YORK162025
PulaskiNEW-YORK162025
BristolVERMONT152025
CayugaNEW-YORK132025
North EastonNEW-YORK132025
NashvilleNEW-YORK112018
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK112025
WatertownNEW-YORK102012
DuanesburgNEW-YORK82025
E YoungstownNEW-YORK82025
ParishvilleNEW-YORK82025
HinesburgVERMONT81994
West SenecaNEW-YORK71986
ClintonNEW-YORK72012
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA72025
GhentNEW-YORK62025
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK62025
SheridanNEW-YORK62025
N WilmurtNEW-YORK61998
WillsboroNEW-YORK62024
W ShokanNEW-YORK52019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.