BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

American Redstart in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 106% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+106%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 106% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.6–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.6–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.52.7
20262.11.62.7
20272.11.62.7
20282.21.62.7
20292.21.62.7

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording American Redstart in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS312024
ShermanCONNECTICUT292019
WarrenCONNECTICUT282011
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT222024
MarionMASSACHUSETTS172024
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT162024
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS142024
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS132019
Warren 2MASSACHUSETTS122024
EpsomNEW-HAMPSHIRE122023
WillimanticCONNECTICUT112018
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT112024
GranbyCONNECTICUT112024
LargoMARYLAND101981
Long HillCONNECTICUT92019
WarrenMASSACHUSETTS92009
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND92018
E HartlandCONNECTICUT81992
Gay HeadMASSACHUSETTS72024
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE72023
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE72024
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND72024
Cape NeddickMAINE62024
PurdyNEW-YORK62022
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.