BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

American Redstart in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+124%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.6–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.6–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.62.8
20272.21.62.8
20282.21.62.8
20292.21.62.9
20302.31.62.9

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording American Redstart in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShermanCONNECTICUT292019
WarrenCONNECTICUT282011
Warren 2CONNECTICUT272025
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT232025
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS232025
MarionMASSACHUSETTS192025
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT172025
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS152025
GranbyCONNECTICUT132025
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS132019
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND122025
WillimanticCONNECTICUT112018
PomonkeyMARYLAND112025
LargoMARYLAND101981
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND102025
Long HillCONNECTICUT92019
WarrenMASSACHUSETTS92009
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND92018
E HartlandCONNECTICUT81992
Warren 2MASSACHUSETTS72025
Cape NeddickMAINE62024
PurdyNEW-YORK62022
WoodstockCONNECTICUT52007
Kittery PtMAINE52025
Wallum LakeRHODE-ISLAND52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.